Cornell prof says today's numbers point to recovery

“In a month when virtually all economists feared negative fallout from Hurricane Sandy and the consensus for the new job figure was between 80,000 and 90,000, the U.S. economy proved it is indeed on the track to recovery with 146,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent" Source

Home sales up

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Pending home sales rose 5.2% in October in the most recent data signaling a recovering housing market, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

Jobless claims fell more than expected

New claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 393,000 last week from an upwardly revised 416,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to fall to 390,000 from an initially reported 410,000.- FoxBusiness

Consumer confidence up

US consumer confidence index rises to 73.7 in November, highest level since February 2008 - @AP

Biggest UK retailer up 11 per cent this week, biggest November ever

This further emphasizes the disconnect between what governments are saying about their economic affairs and what people are saying about theirs, and it's not just in the United States.

The "economists" need to take a step back and figure out what is going on. They are mired in jargon and old-school ways of looking at things. They frame their narrative to meld with their inherent biases. It serves no one.

Consumer CONFIDENCE is up

Survey of US consumer confidence rose in October to highest level since February 2008 - @AP

US manufacturing up

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 51.7 in October from 51.5 in September, the highest reading since May. The index was expected to fall to 51.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion while those below indicate contraction. - FoxBusiness

Consumers drive growth as businesses hold back

(Reuters) - Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter as a last minute spurt in consumer spending and a surprise turnaround in government outlays offset the first cutback in business investment in more than a year.

Economic expansion in Q3 in US up 2%

A preliminary reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2% in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second quarter and slightly above estimates of 1.9%.- FoxBusiness

Retail up

US retail sales jumped 1.1% as consumers spent more on autos, gas and electronics - @AP

Service sector expanding at faster rate than thought

The Institute for Supply Management's gauge of service-sector activity rose to 55.1 in September from 53.7 in August, suggesting the sector is expanding at a faster rate. Economists expected a reading of 53.1.- FoxBusiness

Jobs added number higher than expected

The ADP National Employment Report shows the U.S. private sector added 162,000 jobs in September, topping estimates for an increase of 143,000. The increase in August payrolls was revised down to 189,000 from 201,000.- FoxBusiness

U.S. home prices rose 4.6% in August, biggest jump in six years

All but six states are experiencing the gains, with only 20 of 100 major cities showing price depreciation, according to CoreLogic. In July, 26 major metro areas experienced slumps. More in the LA Times

Spending, income up slightly in August

Personal spending rose 0.5% in August from July as expected, marking the largest increase since February. Personal income rose 0.1%, slightly below the 0.2% expected.- FoxBusiness

Consumer confidence up

US consumer confidence jumps to highest level since February on brighter job outlook - @AP

Home prices up in July

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a smaller increase then the 1.8% expected. Prices were up 1.2% from a year ago, more than the 1% expected. - FoxBusiness

Fed already claiming credit for economy turnaround

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's latest round of monetary stimulus will help get the U.S. economy back on track and speed the return to full employment, a top official of the U.S. central bank said on Monday.

They obviously have much better resources on what is going on at the local levels. They must sense the same kind of turnaround that we have, and they are doubling down on it so that they can take the credit.

The fiscal cliff disconnect continues

(Reuters) - German sports-car maker Porsche (VOWG_p.DE) expects to increase deliveries next year beyond the 140,000 vehicles the company plans to sell in 2012, chief executive Matthias Mueller said.

How is it that the world is heading toward a collective fiscal cliff, while collectively the world is buying more Porsches? Maybe it's because the people who are buying the Porches know how to run their businesses while the people who run the governments' do no know how to run theirs?

Consumers Feel Personal Finances and National Economy on an Upswing, New Chase Survey Says

WILMINGTON, Del.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--More Americans believe that their personal finances and the economy are stable or improving than did a year ago, according to the annual Chase Pulse of the Consumer Survey. The majority of Americans, 64 percent, believe that the economy is either at bottom and stable or has already bottomed out and is getting better, compared to only 33 percent last year.

“Chase continues to make a significant investment in mobile to ensure our customers have secure and seamless on-the-go technology to manage their finances.”

The 2012 Chase Pulse of the Consumer Survey takes a comprehensive look at Americans’ financial habits and their attitudes toward the economy and their own finances. The survey reveals that 65 percent of consumers believe that their personal finances have already bottomed out and are either constant or getting better compared to only 56 percent at this time last year.

Seems like there's some extra money floating around in everyone's pockets

Preorders of the iPhone 5 surpassed 2 million in its first 24 hours of availability, more than doubling last year's record set by the iPhone 4S, Apple announced on Monday.

These are purchases of choice, not of necessity. How is that possible if we are heading toward another cliff?

Businesses use headlines to cover their butts; wire services enable them

(Reuters) - Electrolux's (ELUXb.ST) market for household appliances in Europe is suffering from a slowdown, which is spreading from the crisis-hit south to other markets, the chief executive of the Swedish company said on Monday. Keith McLoughlin told Reuters in an interview that it looked like the group, the second largest home appliances maker after U.S. market leader Whirlpool, (WHR.N) would come in at the bottom end of its 2012 forecast range of flat to minus two percent.

With all due respect to Electrolux, and we will admit to not knowing a whit about their business, why is it that the wire services trumpet some CEO's whining about why his company didn't hit its number as though it were the gospel truth? We're not that dumb out here. We know that one company's poor performance does not mean that the whole economy is going to you-know-where in a handbasket. So why, dear Reuters, do you make it seem that way? For every Electrolux, there have to be some other companies that are making money selling Electrolux-like widgets to the masses. Just because you are too lazy to go out and find them and report on what it is that they are doing does not make it right for you to shape public opinion on the economy based on one CEO who is pointing fingers everywhere but inside his own company. 

Consumers upbeat

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in early September to its highest level in four months as Americans were more upbeat about their economic and job prospects, a survey showed on Friday.

U.S. economy out of "intensive care": Bridgewater's Dalio

(Reuters) - Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio said the U.S. economy had come out of the "intensive care unit," but he warned against any quick move to "austerity" budget measures.

"We were in the intensive care unit," Dalio, who runs the $120 billion hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, told more than 200 guests at the Council of Foreign Relations in Manhattan on Wednesday. "We are largely healed and largely operating in a manner that is sustainable if we don't hit an air pocket."

Small business confidence rises in August

(Reuters) - Small business sentiment rose in August for the first time in four months as more owners anticipated better business conditions after the November 6 elections and increased sales.

Planned layoffs drop to 20-month low, unemployment claims drop

(Reuters) - The number of planned layoffs at U.S. companies dropped for a third straight month in August and hit a 20-month low, a report showed on Thursday.

FoxBusiness: New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 365,000 from an upwardly revised 377,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to fall to 370,000 from an initially reported 374,000.  

Fox Business: The Institute for Supply Management's gauge of service-sector activity rose to 53.7 in August, the highest level since May, from 52.6 in July. The index was expected to fall slightly to 52.5. 

US productivity up in Q2

US productivity grew at 2.2% rate in April-June quarter, faster than previously thought, according to the AP.

FedEx says profits below target, blames economy

FedEx FDX -3.14% said late Tuesday profit for the quarter ended Aug. 29 will be below the company's original target. The announcement sent FedEx shares down 4% to $84 in after-hours trade."...[W]eakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth ..."

More at MarketWatch.

Of course they're going to blame the economy. The economy can't talk back and defend itself. How about the fact that people don't need to FedEx as many documents as they did a year ago because of new technologies? How about FedEx admitting that they didn't quite plan for that? Nah. Blame the economy. Wall Street will believe it and the market will go down even more because mighty FedEx is down. The spiral continues.

Hey. FedEx. Guess what. It doesn't have to be there overnight, because everybody just emailed it.

Car sales up in August in US

(Reuters) - U.S. auto sales are expected to increase by as much as 20 percent in August as better financing deals and an improving housing market encouraged consumers to replace aging cars and trucks.

New car sales up 20 per cent in August

(Reuters) - U.S. auto sales are expected to increase by as much as 20 percent in August as better financing deals and an improving housing market encouraged consumers to replace aging cars and trucks.

Bernanke says progress is too slow

(Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods rose more than expected in July, posting the biggest increase since July 2011 and rising for the second time in three months.

(Reuters) - Consumer sentiment climbed to a three-month high in August as households made progress paying down debt... .

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday said progress in bringing down U.S. unemployment was too slow and the central bank would act as needed to strengthen the economic recovery.

Consumer spending up

(Reuters) - Consumer spending got off to a fairly firm start in the third quarter, rising by the most in five months and offering hope economic growth could pick up this quarter.

Everything ticking slightly up

Economic activity expanded gradually across the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts in July and early August, the central bank said in its anecdotal Beige Book report. The labor market held steady or showed only slight signs of improvement in most districts. Meanwhile, the housing sector, retail spending and credit conditions broadly improved. -- Fox Business

Q2 GDP higher than originally thought

A second reading on U.S. gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, in line with economists' estimates and faster than an initial estimate of 1.5%. - FoxBusiness

Clearly, we are wrong and the experts are right

There’s still a 100 percent chance the world heads into recession, Marc Faber, publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Thursday, echoing a call he made in May.

Source: CNBC

Home sales up higher than expected in July; manufacturing up in August for first time in five months

Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.6% in July from June to an annualized rate of 372,000 units. Analysts were expecting an annualized rate of 365,000 units.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in August from 51.4 in July, the first monthly increase in five months. Readings over 50 point to expansion while readings below 50 indicate contraction. 

Source: Fox Business

Looming fiscal cliff, says Fed, will stall economy

Members of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee pared back their expectations for short-term U.S. economic growth as a result of tepid consumer spending and employment growth, Federal Open Market Committee minutes reveal. The FOMC warned that a potential intensification of the European debt crisis and the looming fiscal cliff also present ‘significant downside risks’ to the outlook. As such, the FOMC considered new policy options, including a large-scale asset purchase program and the extension of the Fed’s low-rate pledge to jump-start the economy. Source: FoxBusiness email alert

Home sales up in July in US

Sales of existing homes rose 2.3% in July from June to an annualized rate of 4.47 million units, coming up short of the 4.52 million rate expected, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Source

Economists grossly underestimated June trade deficit drop

Fox business is reporting that the Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit fell 10.7% to $42.9 billion in June from the month before. The deficit was the narrowest since December 2010 and considerably smaller than the $47.5 billion economists expected.

This seems to be a HUGE miscalculation. Is it normal to miss these things by this much? Or is there something screwy going on here?

Irish consumer sentiment hits two-year high in July

(Reuters) - Irish consumer sentiment hit a two-year high in July on more positive economic news in Ireland and as fears of a major escalation of the euro zone debt crisis receded.

McDonald's has worst July in 9 years

McDonald's has reported that they have had their worst July in nine years.

The news is liable to kick the crap out of the Dow because everyone is going to jump to the conclusion that McDonald's is some kind of key indicator of what's going on with consumers.

It may be AN indicator, but there are other forces at work here.

People may actually be trying to eat a little healthier, even though the media would have you believe otherwise.

Parents may be steering their kids away from junk food a little more often.

People may be eating at home more. That's a bad thing for restaurants but not necessarily so for families.

The McDonald's news is going to whack the market, which is going to lower consumer sentiment, which is going to make everyone even more nervous, and the reverberations are going to be global.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the way this whole thing works, says the guy who took one economics course and thinks elasticity has something to do with Silly Putty.

Your best bet is to listen to what the expert economists say. 

Job openings highest in four years in June

(Reuters) - Job openings in June were the highest in four years but the pace of hiring slowed from the prior month, government data showed on Tuesday. More.

International air passenger traffic grew 7.4 percent in June compared with the same period in 2011 - @Reuters

Stores report solid gains in July sales

France's biggest bank, BNP Paribas, has reported better-than-expected profits in the three months ending in June following a round of job and spending cuts.

Consumer confidence ticks up

The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 65.9 in July from 62.7 in June, better than the 61.5 economists expected. 

The Conference Board is a well respected organization with lots of experts, but we are wondering if they get out and about.


There seems to be a double disconnect. The folks who sit on the Conference Board don't seem to be in touch with what is happening on the ground. And reporters (actually, are there any real reporters any more or are they all covering celebrities and other fluff?) who cover local news are (pick one or more) not equipped to report on what is happening with regard to economic activity in their localities; not asked by their editors to report on such things; don't care; think WE don't care.


With all of the social media and technology and apps, can't someone come up with something that tracks all of the little mini malls and construction projects that are going to house retail operations and employ people? Or does the Conference Board claim to do this?


Because I am seeing lots of them in my limited travels, and either there is something going on out here on the ground or there are a lot of dumb people investing in new projects who are going to get burned soon and the whole thing really is going to hell in a handbasket.

P.S. As we were writing this, this got posted by FoxBusiness: The manufacturing sector in the U.S. Midwest expanded at a slightly swifter pace in July than it did the month before. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge came in at 53.7, higher than expectations of 52.5 and a reading of 52.9 in June.

Home prices creeping back

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas climbed 2.2% in May from the month before on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according the S&P/Case-Shiller report. That came in stronger than the 1.5% gain economists expected. Prices slipped 0.7% from the same month in 2011, a shallower fall than the 1.5% anticipated.

Housing coming back

US builders broke ground on the most new homes in nearly 4 years, sign of housing recovery - @AP

Dow down, says Fox

Taking a cue from Europe, [and, perhaps, from Warren Buffett's comments posted about an hour ago], U.S. markets are posting steep losses as traders worry about dimming global economic prospects and a sluggish response from policymakers. The broad S&P 500 is down 1%, while the Dow is off 90 points, or 0.71%, in choppy trading.Source: Fox email update

Chances are, we are wrong and Warren Buffett is right

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett made some of his most pessimistic comments on the economy in recent memory on Thursday, telling CNBC that things have slowed in the United States in the last six weeks.

More 


If we were you and we were asked to bet on us or Warren Buffett with regard to the question of whether the economy is back, we would bet on Mr. Buffett being correct. He is the whatever of Omaha, older, smarter, has made (considerably) more money than we have.


We are looking at things from totally different perspectives.


And, like we said, he is undoubtedly correct.

Trade deficit lower than expected

(Reuters) - The trade deficit narrowed slightly in May as a rise in exports, including those bound for Europe and China, eased the pain of a slowdown in the broader economy, a government report showed on Wednesday.

Congress grapples with evolution from paper to mobile money

 "We are, I think, on a precipice of some fundamental change in the way money is exchanged between consumers and businesses," Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said as she opened the first of a string of hearings in March. more

Do we not already have wire transfers, banking online, credit cards, toll-road transponders, PayPal, and myriad other ways to exchange currency? Why must befuddled government functionaries "begin hearings" and waste even more of the precious commodity? Stop grappling, and go find some waste to cut.

If a tree falls in a forest

Jeff Jordan, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, wrote a guest post this week over at All Things Digital. He focuses on the disruption ecommerce is causing in the physical retail space — what he calls a "sea change in retail" — and makes an argument that ecommerce is going to wipe out physical retail across industries. More

So, like the tree falling the forest, dollars being spent by consumers in non-Dow-tracked industries like the commerce that goes on via eBay (NOT what goes with eBay stock, but the dollars EXCHANGED via eBay)...what about them? Do they not count? if I sell a book to you on eBay and make a profit on it, it may not show up on my taxes, right, yet it is still income, money that I could spend on something else.

The way we're calculating what is going on in today's economy just does not make any sense any more. 

Samsung makes $5.9 billiion profit on phones

 (Reuters) - Soaraway sales of the Galaxy smartphone drove record quarterly profit of $5.9 billion at Samsung Electronics, though the South Korean tech giant is fretting over how Europe's debt crisis is denting demand in its biggest market for televisions and home appliances. 


More


Lots of these purchases were made by Americans who are not exactly on the brink.

Neighborhood shopping centers creeping back

(Reuters) - Vacancy rates and rents at U.S. neighborhood shopping centers improved for the second quarter in a row, further evidence the sector is moving toward recovery after years of weakness, real estate research firm Reis said on Friday.

More


If journalists were not so lazy, the ramifications of this story would be written more at the local level.

Digital music sales up 14 per cent, setting a new record

People are spending money, They're just not spending it with companies that are part of the Dow. Which is why using the stock market to determine what today's economy is doing is an incorrect method.

Lots of other institutions have been disrupted; it's time to change the ways in which the experts tell us about what's going on with the economy.

Glass half empty headlines such as this fuel negative consumer sentiment

(Reuters) - A slew of weak economic data is casting doubts over expectations of a pick-up in growth in the second half of the year. From manufacturing to job growth to consumer spending, the numbers have been grim, and economists are wondering whether they need to dial down forecasts for the remainder of the year.

More of this story, headlined Analysis: Anxiety mounts as economy limps into second half

If politicians, worldwide, stopped being the idiots who cry wolf, screaming that we're on the edge and on the brink and on the precipice every eight seconds, maybe people could run their businesses better and not hold onto cash.

June private sector employment up higher than expected

ROSELAND, N.J. – July 5, 2012 – Private-sector employment increased by 176,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month. The estimated gain from April to May was revised up slightly, from the initial estimate of 133,000 to a revised estimate of 136,000.

Layoffs leveling off

(Reuters) - The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell in June to its lowest level in over a year, suggesting employers were not rapidly downsizing even as the economic recovery slows

Dated news such as this IMF item, out today, do not help

US economic recovery 'remains tepid,' according to annual report from IMF - @BBCNews

It would be responsible of news organizations to say when the report was concluded, which could have been weeks, or longer, ago. Not doing so does no service to anyone except the publisher, who seems to be on top of things, but in fact is not. Indeed, publishing items such as this is participating in disinformation.

Some car companies are up, factory orders up

Chrysler and Nissan have reported higher sales, as have VW and Ford. Fox Business is reporting that factory orders are up more than twice as much as expected.

Durable goods up 3x over expectations for May

Fox Business is reporting that "orders for durable goods rose 1.1% in May, beating expectations of a rise of 0.4%."

Consumer confidence down for fifth month in row

This is not surprising. The media is looking in the wrong places for indicators. It's not the stock market, which has a life of its own. It's not the economic experts who write the columns and the books and talk on TV. They are not out and about, seeing the empirical evidence. One of the problems is that the government has been like the little boy crying wolf for so long that no one believes any Democrat. And the Republicans are so focused on winning in November that there aren't any of them that will say anything positive. This is why the party system as we know it has to go. Both parties' missions have nothing to do with making life any easier for any of us. Ask any of your friends if they go to any malls where they don't see tons of people. Ditto for restaurants. Downshifting a vehicle does not make it stop. It means that it is adapting to new road conditions. That's what's going on with the economy right now. Downshifting. But, again, the big thing is that it is no one's best interest to say that the economy is doing well and picking up. No one will believe the Dems and the R's ain't gonna say it.

Stock market run wild is driving our lives?

Here's a book description for Dark Pools.

So we are all working our asses off and a couple of jerks who manipulate bots are driving what happens with the economy?

Hello? This is what Jefferson and Hamilton and Madison wanted?

A news-breaking account of the global stock market's subterranean battles, Dark Pools portrays the rise of the "bots"- artificially intelligent systems that execute trades in milliseconds and use the cover of darkness to out-maneuver the humans who've created them. In the beginning was Josh Levine, an idealistic programming genius who dreamed of wresting control of the market from the big exchanges that, again and again, gave the giant institutions an advantage over the little guy. Levine created a computerized trading hub named Island where small traders swapped stocks, and over time his invention morphed into a global electronic stock market that sent trillions in capital through a vast jungle of fiber-optic cables. By then, the market that Levine had sought to fix had turned upside down, birthing secretive exchanges called dark pools and a new species of trading machines that could think, and that seemed, ominously, to be slipping the control of their human masters. Dark Pools is the fascinating story of how global markets have been hijacked by trading robots--many so self-directed that humans can't predict what they'll do next.

Dark Pools: High-Speed Traders, A.I. Bandits, and the Threat to the Global Financial System

Kroger says it is going to start adding stores

Kroger Co. said last week that 2012 could mark the reversal of a trend in store-count decline that the company has seen for the past several years. Read More: http://supermarketnews.com/retail-amp-financial/kroger-eyes-new-store-growth-after-years-declines#ixzz1yuVNG3qK

House prices up in April

Fox is reporting this; The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas shows home prices rose 1.3% in April on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a significantly bigger increase than the 0.5% expected. The gauge fell by 1.9% in April from the same month a year earlier, less than the 2.5% decline expected.

New home sales shoot up in May

(Reuters) - New single-family home sales surged in May to a one-year high and prices rose from a year ago amid tightening supply, further signs the housing market was gaining some momentum. More on rising new home sales

Jobless claims down slightly last week

New claims for unemployment benefits fell to 387,000 last week from an upwardly revised 389,000 the week prior. Claims were expected to fall to 380,000 from an initially reported 386,000. Source: Fox Business

Housing permits up in May

Housing permits rose 7.9% to a 780,000-unit rate, the highest since September 2008 and above economists' forecasts of a 728,000-unit rate. Housing starts, however, were down.

GDP not cutting it as composite metric any more

There is a shared recognition that conventional indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) are failing to capture the scope countries' wealth. Even in the global recession, many economies appear to be getting wealthier. More on GDP as a failing metric.

June home builder sentiment highest in five years: NAHB